How the Radar Works: Riftbound Zone's Price Outlook
The Radar is Riftbound Zone's indicator that estimates whether a card's price is more likely to rise or fall over the next 2–4 weeks. You'll find it as a ▲/▼ arrow on the prices grid, on Price Movers and as the "Outlook" block on every card page. This guide explains exactly what it measures, which data it uses and how to read it. Since September 2026 the signals are for members: how to unlock Radar.
Which price the prediction is based on
Key point: the Radar predicts the Cardmarket Price Trend, the reference price Cardmarket computes for the whole product page, aggregating all languages and conditions (English, Chinese, French…). It does not predict the "EN minimum" you see as the headline price on our pages: that's the lowest price among EU-27 sellers for English cards only — a different, often more volatile series.
In practice: a ▲ arrow means "this card's overall reference value tends to rise", not "the EN minimum will surely go up". The two series usually move together, but they are not the same thing.
Which data it uses
Every night the algorithm recomputes the signal for every card with at least 14 days of history and a trend above €0.30, combining four families of data:
- Competitive meta — how often the card appears in recent tournament top decks, and whether its presence is growing or declining;
- Market supply — available copies and seller counts on Cardmarket and CardTrader: shrinking supply pushes prices;
- Price momentum — the trend direction over the last 7 and 30 days, with a penalty when the move looks already priced in;
- Cross-market confirmation — when Cardmarket, CardTrader and TCGplayer move in the same direction, the signal is more reliable.
The infrastructure. All of this — multi-market price collection, history, the predictive signal — runs on a high-end dedicated server we manage ourselves, not on shared hosting: that's what lets us refresh thousands of cards every night and answer in moments.
The two lanes: play cards and collector cards
Not all cards move for the same reasons, so the algorithm uses two distinct models:
- Play lane — regular deck cards: competitive meta and supply weigh the most;
- Collector lane — Showcase, Signature, alternate variants and cards above ~€100: supply, graded copy values (PSA/BGS/CGC) and how rare the graded population is weigh more.
Sponsor
How to read the signal
- ▲ Likely to rise / ▼ Likely to weaken — the estimated 2–4 week direction. We only show the signal when confidence is at least medium: no arrow means the model expects a stable price or lacks data.
- Score (−100 to +100) — the signal's intensity: the further from zero, the more the factors push in the same direction.
- Confidence — how complete and concordant the data is (history, multiple sources, confirmations).
- Reasons — the 2-3 main drivers behind the verdict, always consistent with the indicated direction.
How reliable it is
We validated the model with a walk-forward backtest over three months of history (May–August 2026): the model is "sent back in time" and its predictions are compared with what actually happened. Result: rise signals proved correct in 78% of cases at 14 days (versus a 48% random baseline), fall signals in 58%. The benchmark here is the Cardmarket Price Trend too — the same series the signal predicts.
How it's made, and what it isn't
Radar is home-made. I built the tracker that collects the prices, and it has run every day since 27 February 2026 on a server I pay for: 1,500+ cards and variants so far and more than 145,000 price points from Cardmarket, CardTrader and TCGplayer, plus eBay and graded sales. The model that turns that data into signals is the one described on this page: public, free, and staying that way.
Nothing you read here or see in Radar is copied from anyone's guides, spreadsheets or content. The only thing I copy is the price from Cardmarket, and I cite the source. If someone sells you "market signals" and won't tell you where the data comes from, ask them.
How to unlock Radar
Since September 2026 the actual signals (direction, reasons and the 30-day range) are for members. The method, this guide and the count of active signals stay public. To unlock it:
- Subscribe on Metafy to the Radar membership: $2 a month, cancel anytime.
- Join the Riftbound Zone Discord: Metafy assigns you the Radar role automatically.
- Link Discord to your account on riftbound.zone from your dashboard, if you haven't already. Within a few minutes Radar opens up: full page, arrows, Outlook block.
The role also gets you the private #radar-signals channel on Discord, with an alert every time a strong signal fires, and the weekly market brief.
The limits (really, read them)
The Radar is an experimental statistical indicator. It doesn't know about Riot announcements, tomorrow's tournament results, reprints or bans: events like these can flip any prediction overnight. Use it as one more tool to orient yourself, not as a promise. It is not financial or purchase advice.